Identification and evaluation of development paths for technology-oriented industrial companies in structural transformation processes

If the fundamental parameters of markets alter due to regulatory, technological, or consumer-driven changes, companies are urged to position themselves for growth opportunities in new markets and to initiate comprehensive transformation processes. As shown by the example of the automotive industry, proactive adoption of new technologies and business areas is imperative to maintain competitiveness in this sector. Digitization, decarbonization, and new mobility concepts are confronting the industry with one of the most tremendous structural changes in the history of the automotive industry. For an economy dependent on the automotive industry, this far-reaching transformation threatens thousands of jobs in this sector and a country's economic performance. Despite the high necessity to adapt, the industry, as well as policymakers, often lack strategies for structural change as well as for future investments. In scientific literature, a lack of methods to identify and evaluate development prospects for industries and value chains can be observed: Existing approaches either partially support strategy- and future-oriented decisions or their methodology is too complex and focused on individual companies. A systematic approach is necessary to derive sustainable corporate strategies and direct investments and subsidies of industrial and technology policies to the most promising technology fields. This paper will outline a conceptual approach to systematically derive development paths for industries in structural transformation processes based on the current state-of-the-art. The proposed methodology will therefore mainly benefit policymakers and industry analysts.