Surrogate-based bayesian model updating of a historical masonry tower

This paper presents the surrogate-based Bayesian model updating of a historical masonry bell tower. The finite element model of the structure is updated on the basis of the modal properties experimentally identified thanks to a vibration test. In a general context, model updating results are highly affected by several uncertainties, regarding both the experimental measures and the model. Stochastic approaches to model updating, as the one based on Bayes’ theorem, enable to quantify the uncertainties associated to the updated parameters and, consequently, to increase the reliability of the identification. The major drawback of Bayesian model updating is the high computational effort requested to compute the posterior distribution of parameters. For this reason, the paper proposes to integrate the classical procedure with a surrogate model. A Gaussian surrogate is employed for the approximation of the posterior distribution of parameters and the performances of the proposed method are compared to those of an Bayesian numerical method proposed in literature.