Driving forces and recovery potential of the macrophyte decline in East Taihu Lake.

Macrophytes are of key importance to the structure and ecological services of shallow lakes and are sensitive to anthropogenic and natural perturbations. Ongoing eutrophication and hydrological regime change affect macrophytes through changes in water transparency and water level, which lead to a dramatic decrease in bottom light availability. Here an integrated dataset (2005-2021) of multiple environmental factors is used to demonstrate the driving forces and recovery potential of the macrophyte decline in East Taihu Lake by using a critical indicator, which is the ratio of the Secchi disk depth to the water depth (SD/WD). The macrophyte distribution area showed a remarkable decrease from 136.1 ± 9.7 km (2005-2014) to 66.1 ± 6.5 km (2015-2021). The macrophyte coverage in the lake and in the buffer zone decreased by 51.4% and 82.8%, respectively. The structural equation model and correlation analysis showed that the distribution and coverage of macrophytes decreased with the decrease in the SD/WD over time. Moreover, an extensive hydrological regime change, which caused a sharp decrease in SD and an increase in the water level, is likely to be the driving force that brought about the decline of macrophytes in this lake. The proposed recovery potential model shows that the SD/WD has been low in recent years (2015-2021), and that this SD/WD cannot ensure the growth of submerged macrophytes and is unlikely to ensure the growth of floating-leaved macrophytes, especially in the buffer zone. The approach developed in the present study provides a basis for the assessment of macrophyte recovery potential and the management of ecosystems in shallow lakes that suffer from macrophyte loss.