High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections for seven socio-economic scenarios
crossref(2023)
摘要
<p><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">We present Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">conditions. The historical maps (1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">based climatologies, while the future maps (2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 64 climate models from the Coupled Model </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 40 with the most plausible CO</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">2</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">-induced warming rates. Under </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">the “middle of the road” scenario SSP2-4.5, the global land surface area (excluding Antarctica) with suitable climatic conditions </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">for tropical, arid, temperate, cold, and polar vegetation is projected to show a net change of</span> <span dir="ltr" role="presentation">+</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">9 %,</span> <span dir="ltr" role="presentation">+</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">3 %,</span> <span dir="ltr" role="presentation">−</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">3 %,</span> <span dir="ltr" role="presentation">−</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">2 %,</span> <span dir="ltr" role="presentation">−</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">33 %, </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">respectively, in 2071–2099 (with respect to 1991–2020). The Köppen-Geiger maps, including associated confidence estimates, </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">the underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for CMIP6 climate models are available at </span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">www.gloh2o.org/koppen</span><span dir="ltr" role="presentation">.</span></p>
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