Impact of interplay of perceived environmental and socio-political uncertainties on adaptation decisions

Accelerated climate, environmental and societal change and its dynamics challenge the resilience of complex socio-ecological systems and require constant adaptation. It also requires to better integrate uncertainties into the decision-making process. By comparing two case studies in Tanzania and Germany with different foci in human-water interaction and socio-political backgrounds, patterns of decision-making under uncertainty are identified. Using a (semi)participatory qualitative system analysis approach helps identifying the heterogeneity of actors and their specific ways of reasoning. For example, in the case studies the perception of change and uncertainty differed between the stakeholders and were identified as important drivers for different decision rationales and hence different preferred adaptation strategies. While research in reducing environmental uncertainty through e.g. improved physical understanding and models is important, it is only on side of the equation in complex socio-ecological systems. Especially, the interplay of environmental and socio-economic uncertainty and how this uncertainty loop creates different rooms of action and agency is worth considering. The comparison shows that acknowledging heterogeneity is important across regions and water management issues and supports in developing tailor-made adaptation strategies targeting the environmental issue. Additionally, the approach empowers and enables actors to increase their room of action and adaptation capacity by acknowledging their uncertainty perception.