How Useful are Ofsted Inspection judgements for Informing Secondary School Choice?

School inspections are a key component of the accountability system in many education systems, including England. The judgments and reports produced through these inspections are widely used by parents when they are choosing a school for their children. But should they be? This paper presents new evidence on this issue. We illustrate how parents selecting secondary schools using Ofsted judgments will often be basing their decision on dated information. Indeed, half the time, this will be based on a period in which the school had a different headteacher. We find there are almost no differences in future academic, behavioral, school leadership and parental satisfaction outcomes between schools rated as good, requiring improvement and inadequate in the inspection data available to parents at the point of school selection. That is, parents who choose a “good” secondary school for their child will not leave with appreciably better outcomes than a parent who selects an “inadequate” school. The one exception to this is an Outstanding judgment, which does predict future academic outcomes – though only if the inspection was conducted within the last five years. We thus advise parents that – besides choices involving Outstanding schools – Ofsted judgments are of limited use to them in selecting a school.