Sensitivity of future drought to soil moisture dynamics

<p>Climate changes is known to influence the frequency and severity of extreme events. In recent years north-western Europe suffered severe and consecutive droughts, which spiked societal interest in the topic of drought vulnerability and understanding (future) drought characteristics. We investigate uncertainties in estimates of forced changes in drought in global climate models. These uncertainties relate to the sign of precipitation change and the magnitude of the change in evapotranspiration. We quantify the uncertainty in the CMIP6 ensemble, and will investigate mechanisms of change in more detail using a single model large-ensemble climate modelling experiment (EC-Earth3, KNMI-LENTIS, 2x 1600 years). Finally, a dedicated soil moisture perturbation experiment will be used to investigate the dependence of drought changes on climatological mean soil moisture conditions. This combination of different experimental designs, i.e. a multi-model approach, a single model large ensemble approach and an experimental approach with adjusted model physics, will help improve our understanding of mechanisms and magnitudes of future drought changes, and inform directions of future scientific development to reduce uncertainties in climate change projections of drought in the region.</p>