Heterogeneous effects of spanking on child protective services involvement in early childhood: A propensity score stratification analysis

•Scarce research has examined heterogeneity in the effect of spanking on Child Protective Service (CPS) involvement.•Heterogeneity exists in children’s risk of experiencing spanking.•Low SES, negative psychosocial conditions of the mother, and dysregulated child temperament predict elevated risk of spanking.•Differential risks of experiencing spanking shape differential responses to spanking.•Children with the lowest risk of spanking are at highest risk of household CPS involvement.