Evaluating the Performance of WRF-Solar Model for 72-Hour Ahead Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting in West Africa: A Case Study of Ghana

<p>Accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is crucial for the integration of solar energy into the<br />power grid, power system planning, and the operation of solar power plants. The Weather<br />Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with its solar radiation (WRF-Solar) extension, has<br />been used to forecast solar irradiance in various regions worldwide. However, the application<br />of the WRF-Solar model for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting in West Africa,<br />specifically in Ghana, has not been studied. This study aims to evaluate the performance of<br />the WRF-Solar model for GHI forecasting in Ghana, focusing on 3 health centers (Kologo,<br />Kumasi and Akwatia) for the year 2021. We applied a two one-way nested domain (D1=15<br />km and D2=3 km) to investigate the ability of the WRF solar model to forecast GHI up to 72<br />hours in advance under different atmospheric conditions. The initial and lateral boundary<br />conditions were taken from the ECMWF operational forecasts. In addition, the optical aerosol<br />depth (AOD) data at 550 nm from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)<br />were considered. The study uses statistical metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), root mean<br />square error (RMSE), to evaluate the performance of the WRF-Solar model with the<br />observational data obtained from automatic weather stations in the three health centers in<br />Ghana. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of the capabilities and<br />limitations of the WRF-Solar model for forecasting GHI in West Africa, particularly in<br />Ghana, and provide valuable information for stakeholders involved in solar energy generation<br />and grid integration towards optimized management of in the region.<br />Keywords: WRF-Solar; Global horizontal irradiance; Forecasting; West Africa; Ghana</p>