Market capabilities and environmental impact of all-electric aircraft

The transportation sector accounts for 28% of US-based and 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Transitioning from hydrocarbon-powered vehicles to electric vehicles such as allelectric aircraft (AEA) in parallel with use of reduced-emissions power sources is one possible method to curtail future sector emissions. However, AEA market capabilities and environmental impact are uncertain and insufficiently quantified in the literature. The present work evaluates AEA in the United States on national and state-by-state bases through 2050, considering four emerging battery architectures and two emissions scenarios. AEA using lithium-air cells with a projected specific energy of 915 Wh/kg could achieve 46.6% of total domestic commercial passenger share and 20.9% of total domestic commercial revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) by 2050, corresponding to a net CO2-equivalent emissions reduction of 1.02% - 19.8%. This work demonstrates clear potential for AEA, although achieving substantive aviation sector emissions reductions requires transition to reduced-emissions power generation.