Forecasting Artificial Intelligence Trends in Health Care: Systematic International Patent Analysis (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Artificial intelligence (AI)– and machine learning (ML)–based medical devices and algorithms are rapidly changing the medical field. To provide an insight into the trends in AI and ML in health care, we conducted an international patent analysis. OBJECTIVE It is pivotal to obtain a clear overview on upcoming AI and MLtrends in health care to provide regulators with a better position to foresee what technologies they will have to create regulations for, which are not yet available on the market. Therefore, in this study, we provide insights and forecasts into the trends in AI and ML in health care by conducting an international patent analysis. METHODS A systematic patent analysis, focusing on AI- and ML-based patents in health care, was performed using the Espacenet database (from January 2012 until July 2022). This database includes patents from the China National Intellectual Property Administration, European Patent Office, Japan Patent Office, Korean Intellectual Property Office, and the United States Patent and Trademark Office. RESULTS We identified 10,967 patents: 7332 (66.9%) from the China National Intellectual Property Administration, 191 (1.7%) from the European Patent Office, 163 (1.5%) from the Japan Patent Office, 513 (4.7%) from the Korean Intellectual Property Office, and 2768 (25.2%) from the United States Patent and Trademark Office. The number of published patents showed a yearly doubling from 2015 until 2021. Five international companies that had the greatest impact on this increase were Ping An Medical and Healthcare Management Co Ltd with 568 (5.2%) patents, Siemens Healthineers with 273 (2.5%) patents, IBM Corp with 226 (2.1%) patents, Philips Healthcare with 150 (1.4%) patents, and Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co Ltd with 144 (1.3%) patents. CONCLUSIONS This international patent analysis showed a linear increase in patents published by the 5 largest patent offices. An open access database with interactive search options was launched for AI- and ML-based patents in health care.