Simulating land use change for sustainable land management in rapid urbanization regions: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region

Context The rapid urbanization in China has led to acute land use conflicts between urban expansion and the protection of cropland and ecological land, which have also threatened the sustainable use of land resources and regional sustainable development. However, most current land management policies for solving these conflicts focus on short-term economic benefits, neglecting sustainable land management. Objectives The goal is to propose sustainable land management strategies for balancing the coordinated relationships among urban expansion, cropland protection, and ecological protection in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDR). Methods We used a newly proposed patch-generating land use simulation model to determine the key driving factors and to simulate future land use changes under multiple development scenarios in the YRDR. Additionally, we analysed the evolution process of land use dynamics in the YRDR from 2000 to 2050. Results Future urban expansion was projected to be spatially unevenly distributed under different topographic conditions and among different economic development regions, indicating that more consideration should be given to platform regions and less economically developed areas to meet the demand for future construction activities. Additionally, driving factor analysis suggested that governments should take measures to guide the population to economically underdeveloped areas and that the governments of newly developed areas should focus on extending the local road network first. Conclusions The methodological framework for integrating future land use simulations with analyses of driving forces and land use evolution processes can alleviate or eliminate land use conflicts to achieve sustainable land management in rapid urbanization regions.