Hydrology is a major influence on amphibian abundance in a large European floodplain

River-floodplain ecosystems play a crucial role in connecting landscape patches through hydrological connectivity, but they are among the most threatened ecosystems. Floodplains provide important habitat for amphibians by connecting aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Modifications to floodplain hydrology can impact amphibian communities, yet few studies have examined amphibian metacommunities in floodplain wetlands. In this study, we assessed patterns in amphibian breeding abundance in one of the largest floodplains of the Danube River, Hungary, relative to hydrological connectivity and multi-scale variables at 30 waterbody sites. Our aim was to determine whether these patterns aligned with the pond-permanence gradient hypothesis, where breeding amphibian abundance is predicted to be highest in ephemeral ponds without large predatory fish. We used Bayesian hierarchical modelling to estimate multi-species abundance from repeated survey (count) data collected over one breeding season. We detected the eggs and larvae of four amphibian species. The best model of abundance included covariates describing two principal component axes associated with waterbody hydrology and landscape composition within a 500-m radius of a site. There was a positive relationship between mean community abundance at a site and hydrological disconnection from the main river channel; however, the common toad (Bufo bufo) was associated with hydrologically connected waterbodies. There was a positive relationship between mean community abundance and a high proportion of forest cover and low cover of agricultural land within a 500-m radius around a site, although this relationship was clear for only two species. There was no support for models containing the number of large predatory fish species detected at a site. Although our results showed that amphibian abundance declined with hydrological connectivity, based on model selection we could not ascribe this relationship to an increased number of large predatory fish species detected in waterbodies close to the main river channel. Differences in life history and habitat requirements are likely to have explained interspecific responses to hydrological connectivity. Our results underscore the importance of addressing amphibian abundance at multiple spatial scales in floodplain wetlands, as landscape composition partly explained patterns in abundance. Application of multi-species abundance modelling allowed us to investigate environmental relationships for common and infrequently detected species. Habitat restoration programmes in floodplains should provide waterbodies disconnected from main river channels as potential amphibian breeding sites and protect or restore forest as terrestrial habitat.