Presidential cycles in international equity flows and returns

This paper investigates to what extent the U.S. presidential cycle can spillover across borders and affect the actions of global investors. Using data from 2000 to 2022 on G10 countries, we show that, on average, the annualized equity premium is 6.1% higher and the net monthly percentage equity fund flows are 0.3% higher in Democratic versus Republican presidencies. These findings reinforce the hypothesis that global investors tend to be more optimistic, instead of more risk averse, in Democratic presidencies. However, we find no significant presidential cycle effect in equity flows from U.S. funds.