Exposure to extremes in multiple global change drivers: Characterizing pH, dissolved oxygen, and temperature variability in a dynamic, upwelling dominated ecosystem

In upwelling systems, fluctuations in seawater pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and temperature can expose species to extremes that differ greatly from the mean conditions. Understanding the nature of this exposure to extremes, including how exposure to low pH, low DO concentrations, and temperature varies spatiotemporally and in the context of other drivers, is critical for informing global change biology. Here, we use a 4-yr time series of coupled pH, DO, and temperature observations at six nearshore kelp forest sites spanning the coast of California to characterize the variability and covariance among these drivers. We further compare observed properties to those derived from a high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical simulation for the central California current system. We find the intensity, duration, and severity of exposure to extreme conditions beyond heuristic, biologically relevant pH(T) (< 7.7), and DO (< 4.6 mg L-1) values were greatest at sites with strong upwelling. In contrast, sites with relatively weaker upwelling had little exposure to pH or DO conditions below these heuristic values but had higher and more variable temperature. The covariance between pH, DO, and temperature was highest in sites with strong upwelling and weakest in sites with limited upwelling. These relationships among pH, DO, and temperature at the observation locations were mirrored in the model, and model output highlighted geographic differences in exposure regimes across the California marine protected area network. Together, these results provide important insight into the conditions marine ecosystems are exposed to relevant to studies of global change biology.