Advanced non-small-cell lung cancer treated with first-line pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy: tumor response dynamics as a marker for survival

Objectives The study investigated tumor burden dynamics on computed tomography (CT) scans in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) during first-line pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy, to provide imaging markers for overall survival (OS). Methods The study included 133 patients treated with first-line pembrolizumab plus platinum-doublet chemotherapy. Serial CT scans during therapy were assessed for tumor burden dynamics during therapy, which were studied for the association with OS. Results There were 67 responders, with overall response rate of 50%. The tumor burden change at the best overall response ranged from − 100.0% to + 132.1% (median of − 30%). Higher response rates were associated with younger age ( p < 0.001) and higher programmed cell death-1 (PD-L1) expression levels ( p = 0.01). Eighty-three patients (62%) showed tumor burden below the baseline burden throughout therapy. Using an 8-week landmark analysis, OS was longer in patients with tumor burden below the baseline burden in the first 8 weeks than in those who experienced ≥ 0% increase (median OS: 26.8 vs. 7.6 months, hazard ratio (HR): 0.36, p < 0.001). Tumor burden remained below their baseline throughout therapy was associated with significantly reduced hazards of death (HR: 0.72, p = 0.03) in the extended Cox models, after adjusting for other clinical variables. Pseudoprogression was noted in only one patient (0.8%). Conclusions Tumor burden staying below the baseline burden throughout the therapy was predictive of prolonged overall survival in patients with advanced NSCLC treated with first-line pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy, and may be used as a practical marker for therapeutic decisions in this widely used combination regimen. Clinical relevance statement The analysis of tumor burden dynamics on serial CT scans in reference to the baseline burden can provide an additional objective guide for treatment decision making in patients treated with first-line pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy for their advanced NSCLC. Key Points • Tumor burden remaining below baseline burden during therapy predicted longer survival during first-line pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy. • Pseudoprogression was noted in 0.8%, demonstrating the rarity of the phenomenon. • Tumor burden dynamics may serve as an objective marker for treatment benefit to guide treatment decisions during first-line pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy.