Assessing the vulnerability to climate change of a semi-arid pastoral social–ecological system: A case study in Hulunbuir, China

Covering approximately 15% of the Earth's land surface and home to 14% of the total global population, semi-arid pastoral areas are characterized by high climatic variability and ecological vulnerability. Recurring extreme weather prodoundly shapes decision-making in semi-arid pastoral social–ecological systems (SAPSES) and their traditional natural-resource-based livelihoods. This study developed a conceptual framework of climate-livelihood vulnerability in SAPSES and evaluated the vulnerability of SAPSES to climate change effects and environmental pressure in Hulunbuir, China using a questionnaire survey and remote sensing monitoring data. Results showed that the study area were impacted substantially by climate change (0.68). However, the vulnerability was relatively low because of the moderate adaptability (0.59) and medium sensitivity of the local socio–ecological system (0.61). Natural factors, including climate variation, natural disasters and ecosystem sensitivity, were the main causes of vulnerability. The increasing vulnerability had been largely slowed by adaptive capital, the traditional cultural organization system and the collective action mechanism. Degraded grassland cover, lack of technical training and high habitation stickiness were the main reasons for increased sensitivity. Natural capital and financial capital were important factors restricting regional adaptive capacity. Therefore, promoting local livestock cooperatives, improving the provision of public services and strengthening ecological governance can help to enhance the climate change resilience and increase the stability and sustainability of SAPSES.