The Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of County Economic Difference in Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration Based on ESDA Model

Taking the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration (here in after referred to as Lanxi urban agglomeration) as the research object, the study used the per capita GDP (abbreviated pcGDP) data of the counties with the methods of traditional mathematical analysis and ESDA, to analyze the pattern evolution characteristics of county economic in the region from the space-time dimension from 2010 to 2018, and using the multivariate regression model and GWR model to analyze the driving factors. The results show: The absolute difference of county economy in the Lanxi urban agglomeration has widened year by year, while the relative difference has developed in a "U" type, and the polarization phenomenon is relatively prominent; the spatiotemporal differentiation is obvious, and the spatial structure is a typical "core-edge" structure; the county economic pattern has obvious space-time correlation characteristics--positive spatial correlation , and which continues to increase over time. The hot spot high-value cluster areas of the county economy are mainly concentrated in the core areas of economic development, and the cold spot low-value cluster areas are mainly in the peripheral counties; The economic differences among counties are affected by many factors. Among consumption level, industrialization level and investment level are the main factors, and the influence effects of each factor are spatially different.