Systematic Global Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill for Monthly Precipitation of JMA/MRI-CPS2 Compared with a Statistical Forecast System Using Climate Indices
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II(2023)
摘要
This study aimed to systematically and globally evaluate the monthly precipitation forecasts of Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System ver. 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), a dynamical seasonal climate forecast (Dyn-SCF) system operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, by comparing its forecasts with those of a statistical SCF (St-SCF) system using climate indices. We developed a new global StSCF system using 17 climate indices and compared the monthly precipitation of this system with those of JMA/ MRI-CPS2. Consequently, the skill of JMA/MRI-CPS2 was determined to be globally higher than that of the St-SCF for zero-month lead forecasts. Contrarily, for forecasts made with a lead time of 1 month or longer, the deterministic skill of JMA/MRI-CPS2 was comparable to that of the St-SCF, and the probabilistic skill of JMA/ MRI-CPS2 remained slightly higher. In addition to evaluating the skill of JMA/MRI-CPS2, we identified several regions and seasons, for which JMA/MRI-CPS2 exhibited a low forecast skill, compared with the St-SCF. This indicated that JMA/MRI-CPS2 cannot sufficiently reproduce certain dynamics. In conclusion, comparing DynSCFs with St-SCFs can elucidate the potential regions and seasons to improve the forecast skill of Dyn-SCFs.
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关键词
seasonal climate forecast skill,monthly precipitation,statistical forecast systematic,mri-cps
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