Historical political ecology as qualitative social-ecological system analysis in the Maumee River Watershed

Threats to water security are on the rise globally. In the Great Lakes, major threats arise from watershed land-use practices promoting chemical and nutrient pollution. In the Maumee River Watershed (MRW), which discharges into the western basin of Lake Erie, nutrient inputs associated with harmful algal bloom events (HABs) have increased in frequency and severity over the last several decades. This includes forcing the historic shut down of the City of Toledo's drinking water supply to 400,000 residents in 2014. Conditions which favor HABs did not appear overnight. We trace the history of land-use practices that transformed the structure and function of the MRW from a balanced system into a source of nutrient dynamics favoring HABs. Successful policy intervention must treat the MRW as a complex adaptive system operating at multiple scales at the intersection of agricultural practices and conflicting socioeconomic drivers, confounding traditional interventions that focus on single factors such as water quality or fertilizer use regulation. We conclude with three interventions that policymakers can employ to help tip the scales back into an ecologically balanced system.