Energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area towards a sustainable 2050: A TIMES-VEDA analysis

The study develops energy scenarios for Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). GKMA is Uganda's capital metropolis with no focused energy policy framework. The study uses TIMES-VEDA to assess sustainable lowcarbon development using BAU, Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta scenarios. The study examines commercial, industrial, transportation, residential, agricultural, and electricity generation activities that support economic development. BAU is the baseline case with limited commitment to a low-carbon future. Kabejja, Carbon-Tax, and Lutta are the alternative scenarios with distinct carbon abatement policies. The bottom-up analysis suggests that should policy trends continue as BAU, consumption, and CO2 emissions upsurge significantly. However, consumption and carbon emissions lessen as the energy management system tends to a near-zero carbon abatement strategy. Lutta is the best pathway for a sustainable future, provided the metropolis adopts the lowcarbon electrification of the GKMA energy policy, with the setting up of an electrified Kampala metro becoming the central focus for future policy shifts over the planning horizon.