Impacts of climate change on vicennial spatial behaviors of Trichiurus japonicus in the East China Sea

Understanding fish's spatial behaviors are important for conservation biology under global warming, as one of the direct responses of fish to climate change is the alterations in distribution. We chose Trichiurus japonicus, which is an ecologically and economically important species in the East China Sea (ECS), to study the vicennial responses of demersal fish to climate change. Eight environmental variables (sea bottom temperature, sea bottom salinity, chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface height, bathymetry, distance to the coast, slope data, and Terrain ruggedness index) combined with the annual survey data were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations and stochastic partial differential equations approach under the Bayesian framework to investigate its distribution shifts in spring during 1999–2019. Based on the distribution model, three spatial behavior indicators (center of gravity, Inertia, and Isotropy) were calculated and correlated with six regional climate indicators (Kuroshio index, Taiwan Warm Current Water index, meridional wind, zonal wind, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation) to study the potential cause of its spatial behaviors. During the study periods, the biomass of T. japonicus declined gradually, with a brief increase in 2003, 2007–2008, and 2015–2017. T. japonicus preferred high salinity, warm and deep-water area. The relatively persistent hotspots of T. japonicus in spring were in the offshore waters of eastern Zhejiang Province. The change in the center of gravity during the study periods was not obvious, which implied that the distribution shifts were not necessarily vulnerable for T. japonicus in response to climate change and it has strong adaptability to the environment. We also found that strong Kuroshio Current and Taiwan Warm Current Water as well as cold phased of El Niño/Southern Oscillation were accompanied by weakened spatial aggregation of T. japonicus. Overall, for these types of fish with relatively persistent hotspots, the establishment of seasonally protected areas will contribute to the sustainable utilization of the species.