Risk of forest fires occurrence on a transition island Amazon-Cerrado: Where to act?

A lack of proper planning in terms of fire prevention in protected areas can have several ecological and socio-economic implications. This study aimed to investigate the necessity and feasibility of implementing fire man-agement efforts in fire-prone Brazilian conservation unit on Bananal Island. Specifically, this study entailed a comprehensive study of pattens underlying the occurrence of forest fires (FFs) on Bananal Island using geotechnical tools, meteorological variables, and occurrence records. Fuzzy logic was applied to develop a forest fire risk zoning based on the following variables: land use and occupation, altitude, slope, relief orientation, air and land surface temperatures, precipitation, and proximity to heat zones. To analyze the patterns of FFs, fire occurrence records and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2020 were used. The validation of the model was conducted based on fire risk classes and burned areas between 2010 and 2019. The results showed that 3.61%, 16.41%, 33.65%, 30.17%, and 16.17% of the area was at very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk, and very high risk, respectively, with respect to fire occurrence. Of the fire occurrences, 92% occurred in clear fields (native pastures); furthermore, 75.9% of these fires were arsons. The results of this study will allow managers of Ilha do Bananal to develop fire management plans that involve the well-directed use of resources, specifically the appropriate channeling of resources to the neediest areas. This means acting directly in areas with the highest risks and in surrounding sensitive regions, such as gallery forests. Additionally, our results justify the investment in education campaigns, as most fires result from vandalism. Finally, we conclude that the approach outlined in this study will not only improve fire prevention efforts on Bananal Island but can also be applied in other areas.