Deflection-based failure probability analysis of low shrinkage-creep concrete structures in presence of non-stationary evolution of shrinkage and creep uncertainties

Reasonable assessment of the failure probability caused by long-term deflection is essential to ensure the service performance of low shrinkage-creep concrete (LSCC) structures. In this paper, the shrinkage and creep models applicable to LSCC are proposed and verified by comparing their results with the experimental data. Then, the non-stationary evolution models of uncertainties of concrete creep and shrinkage are developed. Finally, a long-term deflection-based assessment method of failure probability of LSCC structures is also proposed considering the effect of non-stationary evolution of creep and shrinkage uncertainties. The case analysis results show that ignoring the effect of the non-stationary evolution of creep and shrinkage uncertainties overestimates the long-term deflection, and the deviation in this case study is 10.13%. Compared with the uncertainty of creep, the cumulative failure probability of the case structure is more sensitive to the non-stationary evolution of shrinkage uncertainty. The use of LSCC can greatly reduce the cumulative failure probability of concrete structures caused by excessive long-term deflection. Additionally, the cumulative failure probability of concrete structures is greatly underestimated by using the traditional characteristic parameters of uncertainties of concrete creep and shrinkage.