Spatio-temporal effects of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidences from 268 Chinese cities

To comprehensively capture the spatio-temporal effects of urbanization on CO2 emissions, we develop an innovative hybrid spatial model (SLX-GTWR) that incorporates spatial spillover effects and spatio-temporal heterogeneity. Using nighttime light data and a new dataset, we measure urbanization in terms of scale and intensity and estimate monthly fossil CO2 emissions at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees for 268 Chinese cities. The empirical results show that: (1) The direct effect, spatial spillover effect, and total effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions are spatio-temporal heterogeneity. (2) In terms of temporal heterogeneity, the spatial spillover effects of urbanization on CO2 emissions is negative and shows a trend of first increase and then decrease. (3) In terms of spatial heterogeneity, positive spatial spillovers occurred in cities around three major clusters, while the spill-overs of the clusters were negative. Overall, the most cities in China has reached a stage where urbanization is conducive to carbon reduction. Our detailed results inform the development of targeted low-carbon urban development policies.