Construction of ecological security pattern adapting to future land use change in Pearl River Delta, China

Land use and cover change (LUCC) can often threaten urban ecological space and cause enormous impacts on the ecosystem, and sustainable ecological security patterns (ESPs) should receive more attention in urban landscape planning to adapt to future environmental changes. Thus, this research explored a multi-scenario framework of ESP by coupling the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) models for long-term sustainable ecological security in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. The results show that areas of ecological sources in 2030 under the natural development scenario (NDS), economic development scenario (EDS), food security scenario (FSS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS) will account for 11.58%, 3.71%, 10.55%, and 16.50% of the total area, respectively. 45 ecological corridors under NDS, EDS, FSS, and EPS will be 8573.07 km, 7970.54 km, 9197.15 km, and 7769.24 km, respectively. The future corridors, that will be annularly in the periphery of economic development zones, can better balance economic development and ecological protection. Under the EPS scenario, the constructed ESP will have the best network structure and can effectively protect ecological land and reduce damage. This work provides a valuable reference for ecosystem conservation and land resource management under the rapid urbanization process.