Human movement decisions during Coronavirus Disease 2019

To predict epidemics' future course in changing situations, understanding human mobility patterns is important, notwithstanding decision-making process uncertainties owing to difficulties in quantifying people's mobility change decision timings, which make the mobility-epidemic causal relationship unclear. We used the 'mobility avoidance index' to investigate time-series changes during Japan's Coronavirus Disease 2019 (eight waves until February 2023) as a previous study, which measured this index using accommodation reservation data-booking/cancellation timings-was able to quantify the timing of decision-making for mobility changes. Our analyses revealed two general patterns: 1) the index increased/decreased proportional to logarithms of reported cases during the first wave, conforming with Weber-Fechner's psychophysics law; 2) its slope against the change in the number of reported cases had similar values among the waves, but its intercepts changed as the waves passed, suggesting that people neglected reported cases lower than a certain threshold for behavioural decision-making. We shifted the threshold level as the waves passed, and named this pattern 'shift of negligible epidemic' rule. It is the first pattern quantitatively observed, that possesses decision making tendencies for future mobility avoidance. Our findings contribute to constructing a mathematical model, which simultaneously considers epidemics and human mobility dynamics.