Leaf Curl Epidemic Risk in Chilli as a Consequence of Vector Migration Rate and Contact Rate Dynamics: A Critical Guide to Management.

Chilli is an important commercial crop grown in tropical and subtropical climates. The whitefly-transmitted chilli leaf curl virus (ChiLCV) is a serious threat to chilli cultivation. Vector migration rate and host-vector contact rate, the major drivers involved in the epidemic process, have been pinpointed to link management. The complete interception of migrant vectors immediately after transplantation has been noted to increase the survival time (to remain infection free) of the plants (80%) and thereby delay the epidemic process. The survival time under interception (30 days) has been noted to be nine weeks ( < 0.05), as compared to five weeks, which received a shorter period of interception (14-21 days). Non-significant differences in hazard ratios between 21- and 30-day interceptions helped optimize the cover period to 26 days. Vector feeding rate, estimated as a component of contact rate, is noted to increase until the sixth week with host density and decline subsequently due to plant succulence factor. Correspondence between the peak time of virus transmission or inoculation rate (at 8 weeks) and contact rate (at 6 weeks) suggests that host succulence is of critical importance in host-vector interactions. Infection proportion estimates in inoculated plants at different leaf stages have supported the view that virus transmission potential with plant age decreases, presumably due to modification in contact rate. The hypothesis that migrant vectors and contact rate dynamics are the primary drivers of the epidemic has been proved and translated into rules to guide management strategies.