Exploring possible futures or reinforcing the status-quo? The use of model-based scenarios in the Swiss energy industry

Lukas Braunreiter, Christina Marchand,Yann Blumer

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition(2023)

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Abstract
•This study analyses how utility executives perceive and interact with energy scenarios.•Based on interviews with representatives of 20 Swiss utilities, we show that the use of scenarios is rarely part of a formalized process aimed at assisting decision-making processes.•Instead, the selection of scenarios is often contingent on users’ perceptions of their legitimacy, credibility, and salience.•Our results suggest that to evaluate the impact of energy scenarios, social-scientific research also needs to consider potential user groups that are neither involved in participative modeling activities, nor collaborating with scenario developers in any other form.•The usefulness of energy scenarios in these contexts and particularly their capacity to contribute to deliberations on plausible and desirable energy futures is highly relevant, yet largely unknown.
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Key words
possible futures,scenarios,industry,energy,status-quo,model-based
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