Integrated dynamic framework for predicting urban flooding and providing early warning

•An integrated framework (TV-BMA) was proposed for urban flood prediction.•Ponding prediction models for different rainfall patterns were constructed.•TV-BMA had 11.4–50.4% higher prediction accuracy than the four benchmark models.•Dynamic early warning provided using rainfall prediction data and the TV-BMA model.•The TV-BMA model achieved 80 % precision for a forecast period of 100 min.