The risk for a new COVID-19 wave – and how it depends on R0, the current immunity level and current restrictions
arXiv (Cornell University)(2020)
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different parts of the world differently: some regions are still in the rise of the first wave, other regions are now facing a decline after a first wave, and yet other regions have started to see a second wave. The current immunity level î in a region is closely related to the cumulative fraction infected, which primarily depends on two factors: a) the initial potential for COVID-19 in the region (often quantified by the basic reproduction number R ), and b) the timing, amount and effectiveness of preventive measures put in place. By means of a mathematical model including heterogeneities owing to age, social activity and susceptibility, and allowing for time-varying preventive measures, the risk for a new epidemic wave and its doubling time, and how they depend on R , î and the overall effect of the current preventive measures, are investigated. Focus lies on quantifying the minimal overall effect of preventive measures p Min needed to prevent a future outbreak. The first result shows that the current immunity level î plays a more influential roll than when immunity is obtained from vaccination. Secondly, by comparing regions with different R and î it is shown that regions with lower R and low î may now need higher preventive measures ( p Min ) compared with other regions having higher R but also higher î , even when such immunity levels are far from herd immunity.
### Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
### Funding Statement
T.B. and P.T. are financially supported by The Swedish Research Council
### Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
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The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
The manuscript only uses mathematical models and no data.
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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.
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The manuscript uses no data files.
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Key words
current immunity level,current restrictions,risk,wave
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