Demystifying the spreading of pandemics I: The fractal kinetics SI model quantifies the dynamics of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. The recently developed fractal kinetics susceptible-infected model was used for the analysis of the first COVID-19 wave data. The model was found to be in excellent agreement with the data. The “fractal” exponent of time is critical for the kinetics of the disease spreading since it captures the impact of the spatial related factors e.g. lockdowns, masks on the virus transmission. Estimates of the model parameters were derived from the epidemiological data of France, Greece, Italy and Spain. A universal law was established between the “fractal” exponent and the “apparent transmissibility constant” of the model. 173 countries were classified according to the fractal exponent and the asymptotic limit of the cumulative fraction of infected individuals. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding was received ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: no human subjects were involved in this research All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All relative Data are encapsulated in a supplementary material section