Green Hydrogen Scale Prediction Based on System Dynamics Model for Carbon Neutrality

Carbon neutralization has become a topic of common concern in the world. China plays an important role in the global carbon neutrality process. Hydrogen energy is considered to be an important choice under carbon neutralization. The future scale and the development pattern of hydrogen energy will directly affect China's energy transition. Policy formulation related to hydrogen energy will influence the evolution of the hydrogen energy industry. This paper establishes a system dynamics model for the green hydrogen production industry in China supported by government subsidy policies. In the model, the range and trend of policy subsidy proportion and tax proportion are set differently. The results show that when the green hydrogen production industry has an income tax of 25% and no installation subsidies, the low, medium and high demand scenarios for end-use green hydrogen cannot be met. Appropriate policy combinations are needed to meet the demands of green hydrogen in different scenarios. A subsidy rate from 30% to 10% with a fall of 10% every four years and an income tax rate from 15% to 25% with an increase of 5% every four years are selected as policy combinations in the low-demand scenario. A subsidy rate from 30% to 10% with a fall of 10% every four years and an income tax rate of 25% is selected as policy combinations in the middle and high-demand scenarios. Finding an appropriate and reasonable policy combination is the right choice to support the development of the green hydrogen production industry to meet the demand for green hydrogen. This study will provide a reference for the prediction of the green hydrogen industry scale, as well as an investment reference for other green hydrogen practitioners and managers.