Predictive model for BNT162b2 vaccine response in cancer patients based on cytokines and growth factors

Background Patients with cancer, especially haematological cancer, are at increased risk for breakthrough COVID-19 infection. However, so far, a predictive biomarker that can assess compromised vaccine-induced anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunity in cancer patients has not been proposed. Methods Here, we employed machine learning approaches to identify a biomarker signature based on blood cytokine and growth factors linked to vaccine response from 199 cancer patients receiving BNT162b2 vaccine. Results We show that C-reactive protein (CRP; general marker of inflammation), interleukin (IL)-15 (a pro-inflammatory cytokine), IL-18 (interferon-gamma inducing factor), and placental growth factor (an angiogenic cytokine) can correctly classify patients with a diminished vaccine response assessed at day 49 with >80% accuracy. Amongst these, CRP showed the highest predictive value for poor response to vaccine administration. Importantly, this unique signature of vaccine response was present at different studied timepoints both before and after vaccination and was not majorly affected by different anti-cancer treatments. Conclusion While we propose a blood-based signature of cytokines and growth factors that can be employed in identifying cancer patients at continued risk of COVID-19, our data also importantly suggest that such a signature could reflect the inherent make-up of some cancer patients who are also refractive to immunotherapy. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Clinical Trial 2021-000300-38 ### Funding Statement This work was supported by the Belgian Government through Sciensano [grant numbers COVID-19\_SC004, COVID-19\_SC059, COVID-19_SC061], ORCHESTRA project, which has received funding from the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [grant agreement number 101016167] and University of Antwerp-GOA [s30729]. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Ethics committee of Antwerp University Hospital gave ethical approval for this work. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors.