Event Rate and Predictors of Post-Acute COVID-19 Sequalae and the Average Time to Diagnosis in General Population

Background Post- COVID-19 sequalae involves a variety of new, returning or ongoing symptoms that people experience more than four weeks after getting COVID-19. The aims of this meta-analysis were to assess the prevalence of Post-Acute COVID-19 sequalae and estimate the average time to its diagnosis; and meta-regress for possible moderators. Methods A standard search strategy was used in PubMed, and then later modified according to each specific database. Search terms included “long COVID-19 or post-acute COVID-19 syndrome/sequalae”. The criteria for inclusion were published clinical articles reporting the long COVID-19, further, the average time to diagnosis of post-acute COVID-19 sequelae among primary infected patients with COVID-19. Random-effects model was used. Rank Correlation and Egger’s tests were used to ascertain publication bias. Sub-group, sensitivity and meta-regression analysis were conducted. A 95% confidence intervals were presented and a p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Review Manager 5.4 and comprehensive meta-analysis version 4 (CMA V4) were used for the analysis. The trial was PROSPERO registered (CRD42022328509). Results Prevalence of post-acute COVID-19 sequalae was 42.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 36 % to 49.3%). The PACS event rates’ range was 25 % at four months and 66 % at two months and mostly, signs and symptoms of PASC were experienced at three (54.3%, P < 0.0001) to six months (57%, P < 0.0001), further increasing at 12 months (57.9%, P= 0.0148). At an average of two months, however with the highest event rate (66%), it was not significantly associated with PACS diagnosis (P=0.08). On meta-regression, comorbidities collectively contributed to 14% of PACS with a non-significant correlation (Q = 7.05, df = 8, p = 0.5313) (R2=0.14). A cardiovascular disorder especially hypertension as a stand-alone, showed an event rate of 32% and significantly associated with PACS, 0.322 (95% CI 0.166, 0.532) (P < 0.001). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) and abnormal basal metabolic index (BMI) had higher event rates of PACS (59.8 % and 55.9 %) respectively, with a non-significant correlation (P > 0.05). With a significant association, hospital re-admission contributed to 17% (Q = 8.70, df = 1, p = 0.0032) (R2= 0.17) and the study design 26% (Q = 14.32, df = 3, p = 0.0025) (R2=0.26). All the covariates explained at least some of the variance in effect size on PACS at 53% (Q = 38.81, df = 19, p = 0.0047) (R2 analog = 0.53). Conclusion The prevalence of PACS in general population was 42.5%, of which cardiovascular disorders were highly linked with it with COPD and abnormal BMI also being possible conditions found in patients with PACS. Hospital re-admission predicted highly, an experience of PACS as well as prospective study design. Clinical and methodological characteristics in a specific study contributed to over 50% of PACS events. The PACS event rates ranged between 25 % at four months and 66 % at two months with most signs and symptoms experienced between three to six months increasing at 12 months. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Clinical Trial (CRD42022328509). ### Funding Statement This study did not receive any funding ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present work are contained in the manuscript