Estimated small dense low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and incident type 2 diabetes in Japanese people: Population-based Panasonic cohort study 13.

AIMS:This study aimed to investigate the association between estimated small dense low-density lipoprotein (sd-LDL) and incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS:We analyzed the data from a health checkup under a program conducted by Panasonic Corporation between 2008 and 2018. A total of 120,613 participants were included, of whom 6,080 developed type 2 diabetes. Estimated large buoyant (lb)-LDL cholesterol and sd-LDL cholesterol was calculated by the formula using triglyceride and LDL cholesterol. Cox proportional hazard model and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to evaluate the association between the lipid profiles and incident type 2 diabetes. RESULTS:Multivariate analysis showed that LDL cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglyceride, estimated large buoyant (lb)-LDL cholesterol, and estimated sd-LDL were associated with incident type 2 diabetes. Moreover, the area under the ROC curve and optimal cut-off values for estimated sd-LDL cholesterol for incident type 2 diabetes at 10 years were 0.676 and 35.9 mg/dL, respectively. The area under the curve of estimated sd-LDL cholesterol was higher than that of HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, or estimated lb-LDL cholesterol. CONCLUSION:The estimated sd-LDL cholesterol was an important predictor of future incidence of diabetes within 10 years.