Predicting wellbeing over one year using sociodemographic factors, personality, health behaviours, cognition, and life events

Various sociodemographic, psychosocial, cognitive, and life event factors are associated with mental wellbeing; however, it remains unclear which measures best explain variance in wellbeing in the context of related variables. This study uses data from 1017 healthy adults from the TWIN-E study of wellbeing to evaluate the sociodemographic, psychosocial, cognitive, and life event predictors of wellbeing using cross-sectional and repeated measures multiple regression models over one year. Sociodemographic (age, sex, education), psychosocial (personality, health behaviours, and lifestyle), emotion and cognitive processing, and life event (recent positive and negative life events) variables were considered. The results showed that while neuroticism, extraversion, conscientiousness, and cognitive reappraisal were the strongest predictors of wellbeing in the cross-sectional model, while extraversion, conscientiousness, exercise, and specific life events (work related and traumatic life events) were the strongest predictors of wellbeing in the repeated measures model. These results were confirmed using tenfold cross-validation procedures. Together, the results indicate that the variables that best explain differences in wellbeing between individuals at baseline can vary from the variables that predict change in wellbeing over time. This suggests that different variables may need to be targeted to improve population-level compared to individual-level wellbeing.