Modelling the Impacts of land finance on urban expansion: Evidence from Chinese cities

In this paper, the link between land finance and urban expansion in China is premised on a conceptual frame-work emphasizing the distinct role played by local regimes of capital accumulation. Using a fixed effect model, a 2SLS model, a spatial panel model, and threshold models, we examine the relationship between land finance and urban expansion based on data from 273 prefectural and provincial Chinese cities in 2005, 2010, and 2015. Land finance drives urban expansion because political and economic incentives motivate powerful local governments to finance land development, and the impacts vary because they are founded on three different local regimes of capital accumulation: industry-led development, investment-led development, and bond-financing capacity. These findings suggest that urban land development policies should be in accord with the stage of capital accumulation and they have implications for the governance of urban growth in other countries of the Global South.