The Israel 4 Cloud Seeding Experiment: Primary Results
JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY(2023)
摘要
After 38 years of operational cloud seeding for rain enhancement in northern Israel, the Israel 4 experiment was conducted to reassess its effect on rainfall and provide a basis to evaluate its utility. Operational seeding started after two randomized experiments, the second ending in 1976, found a large and statistically significant effect of cloud seeding on rainfall. Observational studies in later years raised doubts as to the magnitude of the effect, possibly because of chang-ing climatological conditions. A carefully designed randomized experiment was conducted from 2013 to 2020. A unique feature of the design was the use of forecast rainfall on target, rather than rainfall in an unaffected area, as a control variate to attenuate variability. The Israel 4 experiment was stopped a year earlier than planned, because the result was disap-pointing: a 1.8% increase, p value 5 0.4, and 95% confidence interval of (211%, 16%). These results led to a decision by the Israel Water Authority to stop operational seeding.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The recent cloud seeding experiment in northern Israel did not show a significant rainfall increase}unlike the sequence of seeding experiments conducted in Israel in the previous century.
更多查看译文
关键词
Cloud seeding,Experimental design,Orographic effects,Weather modification
AI 理解论文
溯源树
样例
![](https://originalfileserver.aminer.cn/sys/aminer/pubs/mrt_preview.jpeg)
生成溯源树,研究论文发展脉络
Chat Paper
正在生成论文摘要