Kilometer-Scale Simulations of Trade-Wind Cumulus Capture Processes of Mesoscale Organization

The EUREC(4)A (Elucidating the role of clouds-circulation coupling in climate) and ATOMIC (Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign) joint field campaign gathered observations to better understand the links between trade-wind cumulus clouds, their organization, and larger scales, a large source of uncertainty in climate projections. A recent large-eddy simulation study showed a cloud transition that occurred during this field campaign, where small shallow clouds developed into larger clouds with detrainment layers, was caused by an increase in mesoscale organization generated by a dynamical feedback in mesoscale vertical velocities. We show that kilometer-scale simulations with the Met Office's Unified Model reproduce this increase in mesoscale organization and the process generating it, despite being much lower resolution. The timing of development is associated with large-scale convergence. Sensitivity tests with a shorter spin-up time, to reduce initial organization, still have the same timing of development and sensitivity tests with cold pools suppressed show only a small effect on mesoscale organization. Mesoscale organization and clouds are sensitive to resolution, with higher resolution simulations producing weaker organization and less cloud, which affects changes in net radiation. The clouds also have substantial differences to observations. Therefore, while kilometer-scale simulations can be useful for understanding processes of mesoscale organization and links with large scales, including responses to climate change, simulations will still suffer from significant errors and uncertainties in radiative budgets.