Toward a Comprehensive Pavement Reliability Analysis Approach

Reliability has been incorporated in pavement design tools to account for input variability influence on predicted performance. As they are not based on a probabilistic method of uncertainty propagation, the reliability analysis methodologies that are currently implemented in pavement performance tools lack rigor and robustness. This paper investigates the potential of three reliability analysis methodologies for pavement application: the Pavement ME reliability analysis methodology, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The MCS and FORM involve a response surface method for the generation of a second-order surrogate model. The investigation was performed using inputs and performance data from accelerated pavement testing structures. Inputs that were identified as significant were characterized as random variables and their associated variability was established using measured structural and material properties. Pavement performance with respect to rutting was predicted using the ERAPave performance prediction tool, while MCS was used to generate the actual variability of the distress. The reliability analysis results have shown that a comprehensive reliability analysis methodology is required that effectively captures input variabilities and the error associated with surrogate models.