Prediction of hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis C-related liver cirrhosis: a cohort study

Aim This study aimed to evaluate the rate of hepatic decompensation and de novo HCC and identify their independent factors in HCV genotype 4-infected patients with compensated liver cirrhosis following successful direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. Methods This prospective cohort study included 1789 patients with HCV genotype 4-related compensated liver cirrhosis who achieved viral eradication after DAAs. Baseline and follow-up clinical, laboratory, albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI), and abdominal ultrasound were recorded to detect hepatic decompensation and de novo HCC. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the variables associated with decompensation and HCC. Results During the 24-month period of follow-up, 184 (10.28%) patients developed hepatic decompensation. Ascites was the commonest presentation. Baseline serum albumin, bilirubin, and platelet count were the independent factors associated with hepatic decompensation ( P -values 0.022, 0.03, and < 0.001, respectively). A formula was developed for the prediction of decompensation using these 3 factors (AUC: 0.641 at cutoff 0.1098969 with a sensitivity of 59.9% and specificity of 61.7%). Pre-treatment ALBI score could predict decompensation at cutoff value − 2.5184, AUC 0.609, sensitivity 58.3%, and specificity 59.7%. Post-treatment ALBI score could predict hepatic decompensation after DAA therapy at cutoff value − 2.9521, AUC 0.597, sensitivity 48.1%, and specificity 75.5%. Sixteen (0.9%) patients developed de novo HCC. Age (odds ratio: 1.061, 95%, confidence interval: 1–1.126) and male gender (OR 3.450, 95% CI 1.105–10.769) were the independent factors associated with the development of de novo HCC but not the ALBI score. Conclusion Baseline demographic and laboratory data could predict hepatic decompensation and HCC in patients with compensated liver cirrhosis after successful DAA therapy