Projected Water Scarcity and Hydrological Extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the 21st Century under SSP-RCP Scenarios

This study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water scarcity and hydrological extremes in the Yellow River Basin in the near-term (2026-2050), mid-term (2051-2075), and long-term (2076-2100) periods under three combined pathways of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-45, and SSP5-8.5 relative to the reference period (1986-2010), based on the runoff simulation through the Huayuankou hydrological station using the HBV-D hydrological model, which was forced by a statistically downscaling dataset. The results indicate that water shortage would still threaten the Yellow River because annual runoff will remain below 1000 m(3)/year, although water scarcity would be alleviated to some degree. More and larger floods will happen in summer in the 21st century, especially in the long-term period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. More Hydrological droughts will occur during July-October, and some extreme droughts would likely exceed the historical largest magnitudes in July and August in the long term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.