Evaluation of ecosystem service value and vulnerability analysis of China national nature reserves: A case study of Shennongjia Forest Region

Accurate assessment of the ecosystem service value (ESV) of China National Nature Reserves is of great significance to the protection of regional ecological environment. In this paper, taking Shennongjia Forest Region as an example, based on the land use data of three phases in 2000, 2010 and 2020, we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the regional ESV, and use the FLUS model to simulate the land use layouts and the spatial distribution characteristics of the ESV under the two scenarios in 2035, and carry out the vulnerability analysis of the regional ecosystem services.. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the overall ESV in Shennongjia Forest Region decreased by 15.48 million yuan, and support services and regulation services always played a decisive role in the overall ESV. (2) The area of cultivated land and grassland continued to shrink from 2000 to 2020, resulting in the reduction of ESV by 2.6 million yuan and 3.67 million yuan respectively. The contribution of woodland to the ESV was the largest, accounting for more than 95% in the three periods. (3) Under the natural development scenario, cultivated land, woodland and grassland continue to decline. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of cultivated land decreases even more, but the area of woodland and grassland increases, and the layouts of construction land are more compact. The potential impact (PI) indexes of the region in 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 were negative, while that in 2020-2035Q1 is −2.01, which further worsens the vulnerability of ecosystem services. However, the PI index in 2020-2035Q2 turns positive, which is 2.29, indicating that the goal of the regional government to protect the ecological space under this scenario is basically realized. The research results can provide some reference for Shennongjia Forest Region and other National Nature Reserves to give consideration to both ecological environment protection and high-quality development.