Complex encounter situation modeling and prediction method for unmanned ships based on bounded rational game

Comprehensive, accurate, and timely cognition of navigation situation is a prerequisite to make safe, efficient, and scientific decisions for unmanned ships. Previous research on this topic has been more focused on situation perception, and lacks studies of mathematical representation, modeling, and prediction for multi-ship complex encounter situation from an integrated perspective. Based on this, vectorized model is constructed to express the situation for the target ship in open waters. Through analysis of bounded rational dynamic game between ships, the navigation situation of the target ship can be predicted. Historical data of Automatic Identification System (AIS) both from public data set and experiments is used to verify the prediction method. The results show that the research can provide theoretical basis for studies on multi-ship encounter situation, and supply a reference for navigation decisions of unmanned ships.