Prognostic factors after isolated ipsilateral local and regional recurrence in HER2-negative luminal breast cancer: a multi-center retrospective study

Background Although the incidence of isolated ipsilateral local and regional recurrence (IILRR) in human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2)-negative luminal breast cancer is low, it is important because of its potential risk of distant metastasis and breast cancer related mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate prognostic factor and survival of IILRR using a large multi-center cohort. Methods Data on patients with HER2-negative luminal breast cancer between 2005 and 2015 were retrieved. The endpoint was IILRR rate, post-recurrence progression-free survival (P-PFS), and post-recurrence overall survival (P-OS). Prognostic factors for progression and overall survival (OS) after IILRR were assessed by multivariate analysis. Results Eighty (2.37%) patients experienced IILRR. Of them, 27 (33.7%) experienced a disease progression, including 23 (85.2%) who had distant metastasis. The median DFS was 48.5 months (range, 4–138 months). In 72.5% of cases, the first IILRR occurred after 3 years. Estimated 5-year P-PFS rates were 86.2%, 69.7%, 69.0%, 42.7%, and 82.2% for patients with age < 40 at diagnosis ( p = 0.015), T1 stage ( p = 0.012), stage I ( p < 0.001), lymphovascular invasion ( p = 0.003), and patients with post-recurrence endocrine therapy ( p < 0.001), respectively. The 5-year Kaplan–Meier P-OS rate for patients was 81.4%. Post-recurrence endocrine therapy was independent factor for progression (HR: 0.176, p < 0.001) and OS (HR: 0.080, p < 0.001). Conclusions Although there is no standardized treatment for IILRR yet, endocrine therapy after local resection plays a more important role in improving prognosis than chemotherapy or radiotherapy in HER2-negative luminal breast cancer.