The association of circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with incident heart failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) levels are often elevated in heart failure (HF), although this has not been assessed using a longitudinal study design. Therefore, we investigated the association between baseline plasma FGF21 levels and incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).Methods: A total of 5408 participants, free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease, were included in the analysis, of which 342 developed HF over a median follow-up period of 16.7 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed and the additive value of FGF21 in the performance of risk prediction over other well-established cardiovascular biomarkers was assessed. Results: The mean age of the participants was 62.6 years with 47.6 % male. Regression spline analysis demon-strated a significant association of FGF21 levels with incident HF among participants with FGF21 levels & GE;239.0 pg/mL (hazard ratio = 1.84 [95 % confidence interval 1.21, 2.80] per SD increase in ln-transformed levels) after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers, but not in participants with FGF21 levels <239.0 pg/mL (p for heterogeneity = 0.004). Among participants with FGF21 levels & GE;239.0 pg/mL, FGF21 levels were associated with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR [95 % CI] = 2.57 [1.51, 4.37]), but not HF with reduced ejection fraction.Conclusions: The present study suggests baseline FGF21 levels could predict the development of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction, among participants with elevated FGF21 levels at baseline. This study may suggest a pathophysiological role of FGF21 resistance in HF with preserved ejection fraction.