High-risk population of progressive hepatic fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients on antiviral therapy

Background Progressive hepatic fibrosis leads to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and decompensated cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to identify the high-risk population for progressive hepatic fibrosis and the incidence of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with antiviral therapy. Methods The data came from a multicenter, center-randomized, double-blind clinical trial that analyzed only patients in the ETV-treated arm. There was 156 hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive and 135 HBeAg-negative patients in 14 institutions. The primary endpoint was fibrosis reversal on 72-week Entecavir (ETV) treatment. The 7-year cumulative incidence of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis were analyzed. Multivariate logistic and LASSO regression analyses were used to screen variables associated with fibrosis reversal. Results 86/156 (55%) HBeAg-positive and 58/135 (43%) HBeAg-negative patients achieved fibrosis reversal on 72-week ETV treatment. Average age was 43 years, 203 (69.8%) was male, and 144 (49.5%) patients had cirrhosis. Age ≥ 40 years (OR: 0.46, 95% CI 0.23–0.93) and HBcrAg ≥ 8.23 log U/ml (OR: 2.72, 95% CI 1.33–5.54) in HBeAg-positive patients and HBV genotype C (OR: 0.44, 95% CI 0.21–0.97) in HBeAg-negative patients were independent factors of fibrosis reversal. It was confirmed in patients with cirrhosis. After 7-year ETV treatment, seven (4.5%) HBeAg-positive patients occurred HCC or decompensated cirrhosis, including four patients with age ≥ 40 years and six with HBcrAg 8.23log U/ml, while twelve (8.9%) HBeAg-negative patients occurred, including eleven with HBV genotype C. Conclusions HBeAg-positive patients with a low HBcrAg level or old age, and HBeAg-negative patients with HBV genotype C tended to develop progressive hepatic fibrosis and had a high incidence of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis, even on ETV treatment.