Preoperative Predictors of Early Recurrence After Liver Resection for Multifocal Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background Liver transplantation remains the optimal treatment for multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, due to resource constrains, other therapeutic modalities such as liver resection (LR), are frequently utilized. LR, however, has to be balanced against potential morbidity and mortality along with the risks of early recurrence leading to futile surgery. In this study, we evaluated preoperative factors, including inflammatory indices, in predicting early (< 1 year) recurrence in patients who underwent LR for multifocal HCC. Methods This was a post hoc analysis of 250 consecutive patients with multifocal HCC who underwent LR. Results After exclusion of 10 patients with 30-day/in-hospital mortality, 240 were included of which 134 (55.8%) developed early recurrence. Hepatitis B/C aetiology, 3/ > more hepatic nodules and elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 200 ng/ml were significant independent preoperative predictors of early recurrence. The early recurrence rate was 72.1% when 2 out of 3 significant predictive factors were present. The conglomerate of all 3 factors predicted early recurrence of 100% with a statistically significant association between number of predictive factors and early recurrence ( p < 0.001). Conclusion Better patient selection via the use of preoperative predictive factors of early recurrence such as hepatitis B/C aetiology, ≥ 3 nodules and elevated AFP ≥ 200 ng/ml may assist in identifying patients in whom LR is deemed futile and improve resource allocation.