Assessing livelihood vulnerability to climate variability in the Himalayan region: a district-level analysis of Jammu Province, India

Managing climate change-induced impacts on livelihoods in the Himalayan belt is a challenging task. This is because livelihoods are highly vulnerable to climate change and depend on both biophysical and social processes. In this study, the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate variability was investigated in Jammu province. The variability of climate variables was studied by applying Mann–Kendall test and Sen's Slope estimator. Similarly, vulnerability index was applied to assess livelihood vulnerability. The result of the study showed that weather stations in Katra, Batote and Banihal showed negative trend in rainfall during 1987–2019, while Samba, Rajouri and Jammu showed positive trend. However, only Jammu district showed significant trend at 0.01 level of significance. Similarly, Katra, Bhaderwah and Jammu showed negative trend in average maximum temperature while Banihal and Batote showed positive trend. However, none of the weather stations showed a significant trend at the 0.01 level of significance. The livelihood vulnerability index results showed that Ramban and Kishtwar districts were the most vulnerable, while Jammu district was the least vulnerable to climate variability. The vulnerability results show that mountainous regions and remote districts are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The results of this study could be useful for livelihood vulnerability mitigation and planning in Jammu province and other mountainous regions of India and the world.